Thursday, November 11, 2004

Some crowing, and a small serving of crow, please.

Time to 'fess up about my election predictions, just to keep myself honest. I know that everyone's pretty much done with talking about the election, but I never had a chance to do this, and since I hate leaving loose ends lying around, here goes:

This was my prediction from the very first post on this blog: I predicted a "landslide win for W."

And here's what I said as the election got closer:

"I'm sticking with my prediction of an Electoral landslide for Bush, with him getting over 310 Electoral College votes. As far as popular vote, I'm going with Bush 52%, Kerry 47%."
Off by a couple of states in the E.C., because I was sure Bush would win Wisconsin (10), New Hampshire (4), and one other Midwestern state. But I was pretty close on the popular vote! (Back patting, back patting...)

I was wrong on these two predictions:
"I'm also predicting that Bush will take Wisconsin as part of that landslide, and that Senator Feingold can kiss his Senate seat good-bye."
Oops.

I guess this part of that post was right: "This could be entirely wishful thinking on my part."

I also predicted voter turnout:
"My prediction: definitely over 65%, maybe edging toward 70%."
Well, I was wrong. CNN says just under 60% of registered voters showed up on election day. I can take comfort in knowing that almost everyone else was wrong, too, including those who predicted massive young voters this time (it was the same as last time).

I was told, however, by a clerk in City Hall, that my city had a 97% turnout. I had to ask her to repeat that, because I could hardly believe that was correct.

I will also do a little back-patting for that, because I was one of the thousands of Waukesha volunteers helping to turn out the vote, going door-to-door with a friend, making phone calls, talking to almost everyone about the election.

Here's something I'll always remember: Those personal contacts helped convince two brand-new voters to get out and vote for Bush. One was a neighbor who said she simply never voted. Another was my hairdresser, who had never registered to vote. This time, she and her husband both voted for Bush.

Let's remember that for the next election: It is possible to persuade people to vote through personal, one-on-one contacts.

I'm glad I was wrong about this prediction:
"The Democrats are going to pull something awful later this week, most likely Friday."
I thought they might come up with some big lie, about Bush's personal life, at the last minute. They didn't, to their credit. Besides, MSM had already tried to help them out, with Rathergate, and then the allegations of missing explosives. Not to mention all the free passes for Kerry on his Senate record, his military service, etc.

But I can crow a little bit, because my popular vote prediction was closer than Ray C. Fair's, the Yale Econ professor. He predicted that Bush would get 57.5& of the popular vote. That would have been nice.

And not only can I crow, but I can cheer, whoop, and holler, because I was also closer than Eric Alterman of Slate (hap tip Instapundit), who predicted a Kerry landslide.

Is it too late to do a little more gloating?

No comments: